Month: February 2020

Amid increasing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and its potential impacts on global economic growth, many major global stock markets entered correction territory on Thursday; a correction is generally defined as a 10% or more peak-to-trough decline based on closing prices.

Around the world numerous large cap equity indexes, including the NASDAQ Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), Stoxx Europe 600, and FTSE 100, closed with corrections from recent highs. The Dow’s largest ever daily point drop made headlines, but in percentage terms, the decline actually ranked only 125th of all time. The S&P 500 Index closed down more than 4% on the day, the latest of six consecutive down days, which cumulatively wiped off more than 12%  from last week’s record closing high on February 19, the fastest ever such correction from a record high.

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The global equity weakness continued yesterday, with consecutive 3% drops for the S&P 500 Index for the first time since August 2015. It might be hard to believe, but exactly one week ago today the S&P 500 was making a new all-time high. What a difference seven days makes!

Yes, the uncertainty that that coronavirus outbreak has caused has sparked the weakness we’ve seen over the past week, but at times like these, it is important to remember that markets go both up and down. “The S&P 500 has pulled back more than 5% from the recent peak, which has many investors on edge,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Importantly, most years see stocks pull back at least 5% multiple times. Even as good as last year was, stocks still pulled back 5% twice.” 

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The coronavirus outbreak—or Covid-19 —has caused significant market volatility over the past week. Our approach as always is to focus on economic fundamentals first, but the uncertainty around the scope of the outbreak has made it very difficult to assess potential impact. The situation clearly is unsettling for investors as more cases are reported across Europe and Asia, and the first case of community transmission has been reported in the United States. As this was written, the S&P 500 Index was 10% below its February 19 all-time high.

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Dear Valued Investor:

Monday was a tough day in the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down more than 3% as the number of coronavirus cases reported outside of China jumped. Monday’s losses reversed all of this year’s gains so far for the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Averages. The Nasdaq Composite Index appeared to be holding onto a small year-to-date gain through Monday’s close. After several months of relative calm in the markets, Monday’s volatility probably felt worse than it might have otherwise, but a 3% one-day decline never feels good.

Every virus outbreak is different, but looking back at other major global outbreaks over the last three decades (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Zika, etc.), we see that the impact to the U.S. and global economies and stock market has tended to be short-lived. We think the current outbreak has the potential to follow a similar path, although we recognize there is still significant uncertainty. The coronavirus has spread more quickly than SARS, the most comparable outbreak, but the policy response also has been more aggressive, and the survival rate has been higher.

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Monday was a tough day in the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down more than 3% as the number of coronavirus cases reported outside of China jumped. Monday’s losses reversed all of this year’s gains so far for the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Averages. The Nasdaq Composite Index appeared to be holding onto a small year-to-date gain through Monday’s close. After several months of relative calm in the markets, Monday’s volatility probably felt worse than it might have otherwise, but a 3% one-day decline never feels good.

Every virus outbreak is different, but looking back at other major global outbreaks over the last three decades (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Zika, etc.), we see that the impact to the U.S. and global economies and stock market has tended to be short-lived. We think the current outbreak has the potential to follow a similar path, although we recognize there is still significant uncertainty. The coronavirus has spread more quickly than SARS, the most comparable outbreak, but the policy response also has been more aggressive, and the survival rate has been higher.

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News that the coronavirus—known as COVID-19—has spread to South Korea, Italy, Japan, and Iran, has led to massive selling around the globe, with many European markets closing down more than 4%. U.S. stock markets are selling off hard as well, with the S&P 500 Index down nearly 3% in early trading on Monday.

“Although the fear over the pandemic is real, and the potential slowdown in the global economy could hurt 2020 corporate profits, let’s not forget that big down days are part of what long-term investors have had to accept,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. 

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