One of the best known investment axioms is to “sell in May and go away.” This is largely because these six months have historically been some of the worst six months of the year. As you can see below, the next six months have tended to be on the weak side.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) all met in the last week and while the show of power was minimal compared to recent weeks, they collectively reasserted their resolve to do whatever is necessary to support the global economy through the COVID-19 economic crisis. Rates are being held about as low as they can go, significant new programs to enhance market liquidity and support lending are in place, and, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, asset purchases have accelerated. In fact, with April not yet completed, central bank assets have risen over $3 trillion, the biggest two-month jump on record.
Over the past couple of weeks, we have thankfully witnessed new cases of COVID-19 in the US trending lower. Increasingly, we are also seeing governors implementing plans to re-open their state economies in phases. If the US economy continues to open up and economic growth starts to rebound, relative performance of stay-at-home growth stocks may level off or even reverse.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April came in 86.9, falling more than 30 points from the prior month. The monthly drop was the biggest for the index since 1973, reflecting the severity of the economic impact of COVID-19 containment efforts.
This piece of economic data is seen by some economists as a leading indicator for consumer spending and the US economic growth. The CCI measures consumers’ feelings about current and future economic conditions, including how respondents feel about their ability to gain employment.
We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process and yesterday we upgraded Signal #1, confidence in timing of a peak in new COVID-19 cases, to “Already there.”
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DEER PARK, IL — April 27, 2020 – Judy VanArsdale a financial advisor at Lakeview Wealth Management in Deer Park, Illinois has been named one of the 2020 Top Women Wealth Advisors in the nation by Forbes.
The annual list spotlights top-performing women wealth management professionals across the country. The Forbes ranking is based on insights from SHOOK Research, which compiles quantitative and qualitative criteria. According to Forbes, the award winners have at least seven years’ experience, and were chosen based on industry experience, in-person interviews, compliance records and assets under management*.
“This is a prestigious list of very accomplished women advisors, and I congratulate Judy on behalf of the entire LPL family,” said Andy Kalbaugh, LPL managing director and divisional president, National Sales and Consulting. “Judy demonstrates a strong commitment to clients, providing meaningful insights and hands-on service as she helps them work toward their financial goals and dreams. We thank her for demonstrating the value of LPL’s independent platform to help women reach their full potential in our industry. LPL is proud to provide the resources, technology and service to support Judy and her firm, and we wish her continued success.”
Judy has 17 years’ experience in the financial service industry has offices located in Deer Park, Downers Grove and St. Charles, IL and provides a full range of financial services, including retirement and financial planning, individual money management, individual stocks and bonds, mutual funds, annuities and more. Please visit their website at www.LakeviewWM.com for more details.
VanArsdale is financial advisor affiliated with LPL Financial, the nation’s largest independent broker-dealer** and a leader in the retail financial advice market, providing resources, tools and technology that support advisors in their work to enrich their clients’ financial lives.
About LPL Financial
LPL Financial (https://www.lpl.com) is a leader in the retail financial advice market and the nation’s largest independent broker-dealer**. We serve independent financial advisors, professionals and financial institutions, providing them with the technology, research, clearing and compliance services, and practice management programs they need to create and grow thriving practices. LPL enables them to provide objective guidance to millions of American families seeking wealth management, retirement planning, financial planning and asset management solutions.
*The Forbes ranking of America’s Top Women Wealth Advisors, developed by SHOOK Research, is based on an algorithm of qualitative and quantitative data, rating thousands of wealth advisors with a minimum of seven years of experience and weighing factors like revenue trends, assets under management, compliance records, industry experience and best practices learned through in-person interviews. This award does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients and is not indicative of this advisor’s future performance. Neither LPL Financial nor the advisors pay a fee to Forbes in exchange for inclusion in the Top Women Wealth Advisors list.
**Based on total revenues, Financial Planning magazine, June 1996-2019
LPL Financial, Forbes, SHOOK Research and Lakeview Wealth Management are all separate entities. Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC
Oil had a wild week last week, even turning negative on Monday, April 20, as worries about lower demand in a sharp recession and where to store the actual barrels of oil sparked a historic rout.
Negative oil prices have dominated headlines recently. A combination of oversupply, lack of demand, and a lack of storage capacity resulted in temporarily negative oil prices, where holders of a futures contract were paying others to take delivery of oil for them. We explore what happened, what it means for the world market, and where oil prices could ultimately be headed.
Stocks moved lower on the week as volatility in the oil patch dominated headlines. Prices for the May contracts for WTI crude oil briefly vaulted into negative territory ahead of the settlement date on April 21. Jobless claims continued to climb at a record pace, though the growth rate declined for a third consecutive week.
One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was.
“We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.”