Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September, and the Democrats are trying to pass two major spending bills and will need to provide greater clarity on tax increases over the next several weeks. We believe the greatest risks come from the debt ceiling and taxes, but expect neither to have much near-term impact on the general trajectory of the bull market.
First and foremost, this week’s commentary should not be construed to suggest that we are saying stocks will go up forever. We are also not saying that stocks are immune from a pullback in the final four months of 2021. Corrections are a normal part of investing and the S&P 500 Index has yet to
pull back even 5% so far this year, something that happens on average three times per year. However, we remain steadfastly bullish and this week want to explore five things that some bears believe that do not worry us.
The term stagflation has been circulating increasingly in the financial media as inflation readings have risen sharply in recent months. The term is often associated with the 1970s, which saw runaway inflation—largely driven by sky-high energy prices—and lackluster economic growth. Stagflation and a return to the weak equity markets of the 1970s would be understandably scary. However, when looking at the data, we remain skeptical that either runaway inflation or low growth are right around the corner, much less both at the same time.
Corporate America did it again. Companies blew by estimates and made strategists and analysts look silly (though we humbly suggest that we may have looked less silly than most in our earnings preview on July 12). S&P 500 earnings growth did not surprise by quite as much as in the first quarter, but came pretty close—boosted by the biggest quarterly upside revenue surprise in at least 13 years. Here, we recap the strong numbers and raise our forecasts for earnings and for S&P 500 fair value at year-end.
The highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 now makes up an overwhelming majority of the new cases in the U.S., bringing with it a rise in cases and hospitalizations. Widespread vaccine distribution and distancing measures have helped limit the variant’s impact, but we could still see some drag on economic growth as some restrictions are reintroduced and consumers potentially become more cautious. While we may see an increase in market volatility due to the Delta variant, we believe the S&P 500 is still likely to see more gains through the end of the year.
Last week was a huge news week, from the Fed, to gross domestic product (GDP), to a giant week of earnings reports. Below we review the big events from last week, while also looking ahead to what could be an eventful August for investors.
2021 has been a very strong year for both stocks and the economy, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been some surprises. Below we take a look at some things that have happened so far in 2021 that have surprised the LPL Research team.
Deer Park, IL — June 2021: VanArsdale, an independent LPL Financial advisor at Lakeview Wealth Management today announced herinclusion in LPL’s Chairman’s Council. This elite award is presented to less than 2% of the firm’s more than 17,000 financial advisors nationwide*.
“On behalf of LPL, I congratulate Judyon reaching this milestone in their professional career,” said Angela Xavier, LPL executive vice president, Independent Advisor Services. “Business owners, American investors and industries at large faced extraordinary challenges throughout 2020. In the advisor-mediated financial advice market, investors showed how much value they place on a trusting relationship with a financial advisor. We applaud Judy for her commitment to clients and resiliency as a business owner, and we are inspired by her dedication to making a meaningful impact in the lives of her clients. It is an honor to support Judyand wish herentire team continued success as they continue to add value for clients and in their business in the years ahead.”
VanArsdale is affiliated with LPL Financial, the nation’s largest independent broker-dealer** and a leader in the retail financial advice market. LPL provides the resources, tools and technology that support advisors in their work to enrich their clients’ financial lives.
About LPL Financial LPL Financial is a leader in the retail financial advice market and the nation’s largest independent broker/dealer**. We serve independent financial advisors and financial institutions, providing them with the technology, research, clearing and compliance services, and practice management programs they need to create and grow thriving practices. LPL enables them to provide objective guidance to millions of American families seeking wealth management, retirement planning, financial planning and asset management solutions. LPL.com
*Achievement is based on annual production among LPL Advisors only. **Based on total revenues, Financial Planning magazine June 1996-2020 Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC
DEER PARK, IL — March 24, 2021 – Judy VanArsdale, a financial advisor at Lakeview Wealth Management, has been named one of the 2021 Top Women Wealth Advisors in the nation, according to a list recently published by Forbes.
The Forbes special report highlights top-performing women wealth management professionals across the nation and is based on insights from SHOOK Research, which compiles quantitative and qualitative criteria. According to Forbes, the women honored on the list have at least seven years’ experience, and were chosen based on industry experience, in-person interviews, compliance records and assets under management*. Read the full list here.
“This is a prestigious list of highly successful women advisors, and I am pleased to congratulate Judy on behalf of the entire LPL family,” said Angela Xavier, LPL executive vice president, Independent Advisor Services. “Judy demonstrates a strong commitment to clients, providing meaningful insights and hands-on service as she helps them work toward their financial goals and dreams. This past year has been unprecedented, with market volatility and so many other uncertainties, but Judy found ways to elevate her business and thrive. We thank her for demonstrating the value of LPL’s independent platform to help women reach their full potential in our industry, and for being a wonderful role model to future generations. At LPL, we are committed to providing robust resources, integrated capabilities and differentiated service experiences to support Judy’s business, and we wish her continued success.”
Judy VanArsdale 20 years of experience in the financial service industry. Lakeview Wealth Management has offices located in Deer Park, Downers Grove and St. Charles, IL and provides a full range of financial services, including retirement and financial planning, individual money management, individual stocks and bonds, mutual funds, annuities and more. Please visit our website at www.LakeviewWM.com for more details.
VanArsdale is financial advisor affiliated with LPL Financial, a leading** retail investment advisory firm, independent broker-dealer and registered investment advisor (RIA) custodian, providing resources, tools and technology that support advisors in their work to enrich their clients’ financial lives.
About LPL Financial
LPL Financial (Nasdaq: LPLA) was founded on the principle that the firm should work for the advisor, and not the other way around. Today, LPL is a leader** in the markets we serve, supporting more than 17,000 financial advisors, 800 institution-based investment programs and 450 independent RIA firms nationwide. We are steadfast in our commitment to the advisor-centered model and the belief that Americans deserve access to objective guidance from a financial advisor. At LPL, independence means that advisors have the freedom they deserve to choose the business model, services, and technology resources that allow them to run their perfect practice. And they have the freedom to manage their client relationships, because they know their clients best. Simply put, we take care of our advisors, so they can take care of their clients.
** Top RIA custodian (Cerulli Associates, 2019 U.S. RIA Marketplace Report); No. 1 Independent Broker-Dealer in the U.S (Based on total revenues, Financial Planning magazine June 1996-2020); No. 1 provider of third-party brokerage services to banks and credit unions (2019-2020 Kehrer Bielan Research & Consulting Annual TPM Report)
*The Forbes ranking of America’s Top Women Wealth Advisors, developed by SHOOK Research, is based on an algorithm of qualitative and quantitative data, rating thousands of wealth advisors with a minimum of seven years of experience and weighing factors like revenue trends, assets under management, compliance records, industry experience and best practices learned through in-person interviews. This award does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients and is not indicative of this advisor’s future performance. Neither LPL Financial nor the advisors pay a fee to Forbes in exchange for inclusion in the Top Women Wealth Advisors list.
The level of US debt, already elevated before COVID-19 hit, skyrocketed as Congress put into place much needed fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic, and it may jump again as the Biden administration targets its stimulus goals. Markets have seemed unfazed by fiscal stimulus measures, and they’ll likely stay that way at least through 2021, but there will likely be economic consequences in the long term.