LPL Financial Research Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed

LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed is designed to help you navigate the risks and opportunities over the rest of 2021 and beyond. While the speed can be exhilarating as economic growth accelerates, it can also be dangerous. Midyear Outlook 2021 looks ahead for opportunities, but also watches for new hazards created by the reopening.

With the U.S. economy reopened, the growth rate may peak in second quarter 2021, but there is still plenty of momentum left to extend above-average growth into 2022. Inflation must be closely watched, but LPL Research believes recent price pressures are transitory, and that the strong economic recovery may continue to drive strong earnings growth and support further gains for stocks in the second half of 2021. The strong economic recovery and potentially higher inflation expectations may help push interest rates higher and lead to flat or potentially negative core bond returns in the second half.

The LPL Research team’s Midyear Outlook 2021 covers the economy, policy, stocks, and bonds. Prepare for a fast-paced second half with the economic insights and market guidance in LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed.

View the digital version: LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2021

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The economic forecasts may not develop as predicted. Please read the full Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed publication for additional description and disclosure. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Three Things To Watch This Earning Season

We ran out of superlatives to describe corporate America’s stunning performance during first-quarter earnings season. Despite lofty expectations, results exceeded expectations by one of the biggest margins ever. So what will companies do for an encore? We expect more good news this quarter as more of the economy has opened up, while also acknowledging the second quarter will almost certainly end up being the peak in earnings growth for this cycle. Here, we highlight what to watch.

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Three Things That Worry Us

Markets are off to a strong start this year, with the S&P 500 Index up about 14% so far. However, most of those gains came early in the year, and many stocks have stagnated over recent months. While we remain overweight on stocks relative to bonds, this week we explore three things that worry us—and could make the market more susceptible to a pullback as we enter the second half of 2021.

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JUDY VANARSDALE HONORED AS ONE OF LPL FINANCIAL’S TOP FINANCIAL ADVISORS

Deer Park, IL — June 2021: VanArsdale,  an independent LPL Financial advisor at Lakeview Wealth Management today announced her inclusion in LPL’s Chairman’s Council. This elite award is presented to less than 2% of the firm’s more than 17,000 financial advisors nationwide*.

“On behalf of LPL, I congratulate Judy on reaching this milestone in their professional career,” said Angela Xavier, LPL executive vice president, Independent Advisor Services. “Business owners, American investors and industries at large faced extraordinary challenges throughout 2020. In the advisor-mediated financial advice market, investors showed how much value they place on a trusting relationship with a financial advisor. We applaud Judy for her commitment to clients and resiliency as a business owner, and we are inspired by her dedication to making a meaningful impact in the lives of her clients. It is an honor to support Judy and wish her entire team continued success as they continue to add value for clients and in their business in the years ahead.”

VanArsdale is affiliated with LPL Financial, the nation’s largest independent broker-dealer** and a leader in the retail financial advice market. LPL provides the resources, tools and technology that support advisors in their work to enrich their clients’ financial lives.

About LPL Financial
LPL Financial is a leader in the retail financial advice market and the nation’s largest independent broker/dealer**. We serve independent financial advisors and financial institutions, providing them with the technology, research, clearing and compliance services, and practice management programs they need to create and grow thriving practices. LPL enables them to provide objective guidance to millions of American families seeking wealth management, retirement planning, financial planning and asset management solutions. LPL.com

*Achievement is based on annual production among LPL Advisors only.
**Based on total revenues, Financial Planning magazine June 1996-2020
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC 

Inflation & What The Fed Is Saying

Inflation has been on the rise. Investors are not as interested in what’s happening now as they are in what’s happening next. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) shared its views at the conclusion of its last policy meeting on Wednesday, June 16. And while the Fed’s position that inflation is likely to be transitory has become stronger, not weaker, Fed members have seemingly different opinions on the future path of monetary support.

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Sustainable Investing Becoming Mainstream in Fixed Income

On May 27, 2021, a couple of events in the energy sector occurred that demonstrated the continued mainstreaming of sustainable investing and underscored the risks and opportunities available to investors. While primarily thought of as equity-oriented, sustainable investing is becoming more mainstream in fixed income markets—and companies that fail to acknowledge changing dynamics may potentially face financially material impacts.

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Policy Shifts May Challenge Markets

Fiscal stimulus, which was central to the market rebound in the last year, may start moving to the sidelines over the rest of 2021 and into 2022 as the recovery continues. Economic growth can compensate for the loss of government checks to households and businesses, but potential tax increases may be more challenging for markets to navigate. Business tax increases, in particular, may gradually pull gains out of markets about equal to their size, but with economic growth supporting corporate earnings, we believe a positive backdrop for equities remains in place.

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Proceed With Caution In The Bond Market

After one of the worst starts to a year for fixed income, returns may not get much better from here. Long-term interest rates have traded sideways recently but we expect rates to potentially rise further, which would put downward pressure on bond prices. We’re not giving up on high-quality fixed income though, as Treasury securities have shown to be the best diversifier during times of equity market stresses.

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