Global Economic Outlook: U.S. and EM Poised To Underpin Growth

Investors have been digesting a number of important global developments this year: fiscal stimulus, trade tensions, divergence in global policy and currencies, and political developments. As 2018 heads into the fourth quarter, we’ve put together what we believe these developments mean looking forward to 2019. Overall, we expect global growth to slow in 2019 but remain strong enough to continue to support the broad global economy and markets. The United States will continue to be the growth engine for developed markets, although we see some upside for Japan, but the front-loaded impact of fiscal stimulus is likely to fade somewhat. In the meantime, we expect some emerging market (EM) headwinds to fade, allowing EM economies to enjoy a stronger pace of growth than developed economies. We do expect China’s growth to slow, but it will likely
avoid a hard landing as the economy rebalances [Figure 1].

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