How Much Higher Can Treasury Yields Go?

 

We expect interest rates to move modestly higher in 2022 based on near-term inflation expectations above historical trends and improving growth  expectations once the impact of COVID-19 variants recede. Our year-end 2022 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield is 1.75–2.00%. An aging global demographic that needs income, higher global debt levels, and an ongoing bull market in equities may keep interest rates from going much higher.

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