Looking To The Other Side of The Bear

The indiscriminate selling continued yesterday, with one of the worst days in stock market history. Fears over the potential impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) have led to one of the steepest sell-offs in history, rivaling what we saw in 1962 and 1987.

With the S&P 500 Index down 30% from the all-time highs set less than a month ago on February 19, it is quite clear the stock market is voting on a significant economic slowdown over the coming months. Historically, during bear markets we have found that stocks pulled back 37% on average during a recession and 24% on average if a recession is avoided. With stocks currently down right near the middle of this, the economy could be about a coin flip to going into a recession or not. We discuss this idea and more in our latest LPL Market Signals Podcast.

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