Market-Friendly Election Outcome

Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States, defeating President Donald Trump in a tight race. Based on the polls and some market signals, the outcome of the presidential election may not have been much of a surprise.

The Senate was a different story. Conventional wisdom expected the Senate to go the same way as the top of the ticket. But the stronger-than-expected performance by some Senate Republicans considered vulnerable means that the Democrats will have to win both Georgia Senate seats in January runoffs—a tall task in a traditionally conservative state—to reach 50 seats and take control of the Senate (Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any tie). Here we focus on the most likely outcome—a split Congress under Biden.

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