Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates—this quarter will likely be the 41st in a row to do that—so we expect a slight year-over-year gain that would continue the stretch of consecutive quarterly earnings gains since the 2016 earnings recession [Figure 1]. Nearly60 companies will report this week (July 15–19). Here we preview second-quarter earnings season and share our outlook for profits in the second half of 2019.