Market participants are always on watch for potential signs that the economy may be moving into a recession. Almost all recessions are associated with large stock market declines, and 70% of the bear markets since the end of World War II have been associated with recessions. Given this relationship, the search for the catalyst of the next market downturn often focuses on recession threats. This is part of the reason LPL Research pays close attention to the business cycle when evaluating market prospects. Based on our analysis, we believe the likelihood of a recession in the next year remains low, but we are likely to see increased volatility as we move later into the cycle.