The Worst Years for Treasuries Don’t Look Like This…Except One

The 10-year Treasury yield is historically low, so low that it could climb a full 1% before the end of the year and still be the lowest year-end yield on record, with room to spare. Historically low rates come with a genuine concern that they can reverse and climb higher, which could be painful for Treasury investors. The good news: As shown in LPL’s chart of the day, four out of five of the worst years for estimated 10-year Treasury returns have been mid- to late cycle, which is not the stage that we’re in now.

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