To Z Or Not To Z: Why The Shape Of The Recovery Still Matters


LPL Research is downgrading its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast from 6.25–6.75% to 5.75–6.25%. Growth is likely to come in at an annualized pace near 5% over the second half of the year. So, while expectations have been tempered, the recovery still has a lot of momentum, which is likely to extend
well into 2022. In 2022 we may see economic growth exceed potential,  creating a Z-shaped recovery— something we haven’t really seen since the early 1970s. What is a Z-shaped recovery and what might it mean for the Federal Reserve (Fed), inflation, and markets? We attempt to answer
those questions below.

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