The Valentine’s Day Index

Inflation and economic growth are key drivers of long-term rates, and rising rates can lead to higher borrowing costs for individuals and businesses, potentially impacting consumer spending and profit margins for businesses. Given the recent market volatility, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will be released on Wednesday, February 14, could become a focal point for markets. Consensus forecasts expect that both headline and core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) may slow down on a year-over-year basis to 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively, but given the focus on rising rates and their potential impact for equity prices, any upside surprise in CPI could lead to additional volatility.

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